2011年12月27日 星期二

due to the weakening of the domestic economic situation

129667837421084142_293Global economy are competition who is the ugliest, resulting in huge countries exchange rate turbulence.   When there is no direction in the market, is the best time of RMB exchange rate to increase two-way volatility. Appreciation of the Renminbi must not be under pressure, it is in China for manufacturing bring ruin upon oneself, China also cannot let the Renminbi exchange rate still intact. Therefore, expanding the fluctuation range has become the mostA good way. From the perspective of euro/US dollar exchange rate parity, currently on the market has not knows what currencies may not be unilaterally rising or falling trend. On November 23, 1.3341 fell to EUR/USD closed a six-week low, because Germany poor bond sales, Germany staged sell from buy farce planned auction of 6 billion euro 10Year bonds eventually sold only 3.644 billion euro, Germany's Central Bank was forced to buy the remaining near 40% bond-investor panic mentality against the euro further expanded. Euro not homeopathy fall, Beijing time on November 24 at 7 o'clock the old republic power leveling, euro-dollar gradually reverted to 1.3381. K-line stretched to month, you can see that has gone through three rounds of the euroObvious downs: from 2008 to the end of the year's plunge and the collapse of the November 2009 to May 2010, April 2011 fall so far. Starting early last year, European debt crisis intensified in the second half of this year. The strange thing is, the euro fell and not out of unilateral, but after a wheel fell, followed by a massive increase,Back to shocks, while the highest downlink of a distance of 1.6, but the rally still can reach the height of 1.5. This shows that investors in the global economy, widespread panic. Investor attention to the European debt crisis, the euro, investors eye occasionally glance at United States debt disputes, deficit of us $ party struggles give investors dare not go chasing rising dollar. InIn volatile markets, investors in addition to keep euro or European debt short, was let go long on the yen and Swiss francs, this is really a coward--not the worst, only more rotten.   However, unwilling to be fish of Japan and Switzerland's Central Bank, announced suddenly intervened in currency, betting encounter gunnin ' Phoenix Suns explosive cartridge. Expanded two-way volatility of Renminbi exchange rate is the best reasonMarket formation stability of the renminbi is not expected. This year, the Yuan central parity against the dollar the largest increase of over 4.6%; since the third quarter, exchange-rate flexibility is significantly increased. Calculated according to the Bank for international settlements, the third quarter of 2011, nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of the Yuan 1.58%, 4.24% real effective exchange rate appreciation.After the national day holiday this year has been more than 6 weeks time, week cumulative of the Yuan central parity against the dollar were mixed-213, 134, 338 basis points respectively, 125-152 and-231, and unilateral move up 6 July this year compared to the situation, prospect of RMB's appreciation has been signs of weakening. Market for Yuan love/hate, see Europe,The United States, such as China and India forced appreciation, betting on Yuan; fear that the real economy weakens, and shorting the currency. There is no doubt that, at $ 3.2 trillion in foreign reserves in the hands of China, also increases the pressure of RMB appreciation in the world. But this is political pressure rather than market pressures. Since the second quarter, offshore stock lower, andOften lower than the domestic market, indicating the foreign investor is not optimistic about the Renminbi. Outflow of funds gradually within markets, October financial institutions added Exchange account for the first decline in nearly 4 years, in the case of foreign direct investment and foreign trade surplus remains, notes significant increase in the speed and scale of capital outflow in China, short of RMB and China's economic strength is growing.The other hand, due to the weakening of the domestic economic situation, October purchasing managers ' index below 50 per cent, showing economic contraction expected strong.   Under the current situation, as long as China doesn't launch massive stimulus star wars the old republic power leveling, RMB exchange rate cannot be increased substantially, the maximum may be related to the euro, relative to from dollar fluctuations. Forcing the immediate problem is, Because the European debt crisis in Europe in the world to withdraw funds, funds of about $ 1.6 trillion in Asia may withdraw, increasing Asian financial (quotes, news, reviews) deleveraging of risk. At this point, in Asia, including China financial pressure will only increase, not diminish. Therefore, relax bi-directional wave, will never cause a drastic appreciation of the single. Neighbouring country IndiaRupee has been pushed to a record low, exchange rate pressures following short-term downside was its future possibilities. Good initiative to expand when volatility in the market of RMB exchange rate, is a sign of confident self. On November 19, Premier Wen Jiabao said China is paying close attention to recent changes in the RMB exchange rate, it would allow two-way volatility of exchange rate flexibility.Now US dollar spot rate difference between the selling price and the purchase price shall not exceed the trading price of 1% and interbank foreign exchange market trading of the dollar against the Yuan in Bank US dollar transactions in the middle price 0.5% up and down within the range of a floating, expanding 1 time or even twice times, appreciation of the Renminbi will not unilaterally and then crash. Premise is that the Government did not pursue GDP to stimulate the economy, does not intend to expand outside theForeign exchange reserves, not to act as a Savior of the world economy.

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